This is a repost from months ago during my Tuesday with Daknit series. Being Christmas Time in WoW, I thought it would be a good post for those that have not seen it. It tells the story of how one small egg changed the way we looked at the AH, and how we learn to deal with item flooding.
Flood! (the story of one small egg)
(the following story has some numbers that might not be exact. I can’t remember the precise number of items posts by whom, but I know I am very much within the ball park. The sale prices are pretty exact.)
It’s Tuesday. It’s you. It’s me. Welcome back. Granted, as I’m writing this the servers are back up, but I thought I share a story of the small egg with you as I’m scanning the auction house.
The wow achievement system just came out about three years ago and everyone is itching to get those points. Stupid things, from exploring whole realms to drinking 50 different kinds of drinks, were now worth doing. Halloween was the test run that year. Christmas was the beast that broke the flood walls of the AH.
Everyone knows this quest. First day of the Christmas event. Father Winter is hungry. He demands gingerbread cookies. We must feed him.
I don’t have cookies. I don’t cook. So, I’m going to buy them from the AH. Cookie per stack of 5? 500 GP. More than 100 postings. Looks like I’m going to learn how to cook.
Key ingredient to cooking? Small Egg. Cost on the AH? 100 + GP each. 5 pages of posting. Wow. Looks like I’m going farming.
This is flooding. We all know the rules of supply and demand. The demand was high, the supply was low, so the prices were high. But in this case, the demand was high, the supply was high, and so were the prices.
Wait. I know. You know. Everyone knows what happens next. By the second day, cookie stacks sold a 1 GP per stack and the small egg sold for 1GP each. The pages were less, though. The supply was there and the demand was starting to wane, but the prices began to drop. On day three and so on, the prices dropped to 1 SP each item and there was nearly 6 pages of this each.
That’s the effect of the flood. But that you already know. Let’s skip ahead to the following year.
(Let me state this before we go any further: People are stupid. We are stupid because we are lazy. People will pay 1000 GP for a small egg if that is the only option left to them. Heaven forbid they actually go out and farm the **** thing!)
Christmas event is coming up soon and I remember what happened to the market last year. I decide to go farming. (Sorry citizens of Lakeshire, you’re plight will just have to wait.) I hit Westfall with a vengeance. I was a plague upon all fowl for 5 hours. My payment was 40 small eggs.
On the Eve of the Event, I (the sole poster at this point) post up 40 small eggs, each selling 10 GP each. I sold 5.
By the time the event hit, the flood walls opened up. I posted 40 at 10GP, then someone else posted 150 at 9GP, then someone else post 100 at 8GP, and so on. I ended up selling 1GP each in the long run.
Still, 85 GP for 40 eggs isn’t too shabby. But, by being the first to post, I set the standard for what the eggs should sell at, and I set the bar too low. (Low population servers tend to have a less stable system than large population server due to the lower flux of buyers and seller. In short, low pop servers get away with crazier prices!)
So I figured it out in how to master a flood. Last Christmas, I collected over 200 small eggs. (through out the year, not just one day.) I figured, if I wanted to control and profit from the market, I had to be in every market. Here’s how I posted:
25 eggs @ 1000 GP each
25 eggs @ 500 GP each
25 eggs @ 250 GP each
25 eggs @ 100 GP each
25 eggs @ 50 GP each
25 eggs @ 10 GP each
25 eggs @ 5 GP each
25 eggs @ 1 GP each
I posted on the Eve and a few posts were already attempting to dominate the field. The average was 100 GP an egg. I posted the above anyways and deliberately flooded the market. Anyone after me didn’t know what to post for. They had two choices: post their eggs a less than 1 GP each, or buy me out. And why not? Buy 1 for 1 GP and resell for 10 or 50 more?
So, how did I do? 50 eggs didn’t sell. I’ll let you guess which ones. And because of this early flooding, I helped stabilize the market to a reasonable price. Eggs sold for about than 10 GP by the end of day one while the cookies were attempting to sell at 1 GP for a stack of 5. (a second flood, I’m afraid)
By the way, those last 50 eggs I had? I sold them for 25 GP each on the last day of the event. Everyone was egg-ed out and was pretty much tried to trying to move those items. By the time the last day came, and the lazy ones were scrambling around to finish quests/achievements, few eggs were to be found. I bought the remaining on the AH for a few GP for about 15 eggs. I reposted them at 100 GP and my eggs at 25 GP. All eggs sold.
Profit? Well. I’ll let you figure that one out. (About all of which I shamelessly spent on bad AH investments and darkmoon fair candy. don’t ask.)
If you wish to call me out on this, that’s fine. I would think this story was bull-plop too, if it didn’t happen to me.
1. People are idiots.
2. Low population servers have unstable markets that can be taken advantage of.
3. Needed items sell high at the beginning and end of an event. Timing is critical. (sell on the Eve and sell within the last 12 to 8 hours of the event)
4. I should have save that money for faster flying mounts later on. Oh well.
So those snowball being posted up at 50 Sp a stack? Buy them up now in the off season. They will sell for 10 to 100 times that come Christmas time again.
I thought it was an amusing story to pass on to you.
Until next time…..
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